Bidder analysis

The $1m–$5m segment attracts the deepest pool of bidders. It has, over the past five years (2018–22), attracted 74.8% of the bidders in the $1m+ market on average, based on internal data from Sotheby’s. In the first half of this year this segment accounted for 72.4% of bidders (down from 75.2% in 2022). The second most important price segment for bidding activity is the $5m–$10m bracket, which accounted for 13.8% of bidders in the first half of 2023. However, despite market uncertainty we have seen an increase in bidding activity in the $20m–$50m range, accounting for 6.1% of the bidders so far this year (compared with 3.8% in 2022).

Information about auction bidders enables a deeper understanding of the demographics that underpin the overall $1m+ market. It also provides collectors with additional context to understand some of the drivers behind emerging auction trends. This data is rarely shared publicly, and we believe it adds a unique dimension to our analysis of the $1m+ market, helping us to understand bidder trends by price segment and collecting category, as well as who these bidders are based on geographic location and age. Although this analysis only includes bidder data from Sotheby’s, we think it is fair to assume that similar patterns are taking place across the other auction houses.

More than half of bidders focused on the Contemporary art market, driven by increasing European and Asian demand. Despite a 31.4% fall in auction sales of high-end Post-War and Contemporary artworks in the first six months of 2023, these categories attracted more than half of the bidders (56.1%) in the overall $1m+ price range (up from 51.4% in 2022) based on proprietary data from Sotheby’s. Both Impressionist and Modern artworks, and Chinese works of art, saw fewer bidders in the first half of this year, accounting for 22.6% and 12.3% respectively of the total number of bidders. However, the share of Old Masters bidders almost doubled from 4.9% in 2022 to 9% in the first half of 2023, underpinning the strong performance of the category this year.

We saw an increasing presence of European bidders in the Contemporary art market, accounting for 37% of $1m+ bids (up from 31.6% in 2022), and a larger share of Asian bidders in this category, accounting for 20.1% of bids in the first half of 2023, compared with 15.8% in 2022. The share of North American bidders in the $1m+ Contemporary segment declined from 48.6% in 2022 to 38.5% in the first half of 2023. However, the Old Masters market saw significantly stronger bidding from North America, accounting for 48.6% of bidders, up from 30.2% in 2022 – the highest result since our analysis began in 2018.

The Impressionist and Modern market accounts for a smaller share of bidders compared with 2022, but Asian interest in the category is growing: in a slight drop, 22.6% of all bids on $1m+ artworks in the first six months of this year were for Modern and Impressionist art (compared with 28.7% in 2022). Europeans accounted for 39.8% of bidders in this category (compared with 44.4% in 2022), followed by North Americans, with 36.8% (39.7% in 2022). However, we saw stronger bidder interest from Asia in the first six months of this year, accounting for 18% of bidders, compared with 13.8% in 2022.

Strong results in the Old Masters market were fuelled by more bidders. The share of Old Masters bidders in the high-end market increased to 9%, up from 4.9% in 2022, which contributed to the 25.8% year-on-year increase in $1m+ auction sales of Old Masters in the first half of 2023. The regional demographics of bidders in this segment changed in the first half of 2023, with a third (32.9%) of the $1m+ bids in the Old Masters market coming from North America (down from 48.6% in 2022). This was followed by Europe, which represented 53.1% of the bids (up from 45.7% in 2022) and Asia, at 7% (a notable increase from 2.9% in 2022).

North American bidders continue to dominate, but Asian bidders are maintaining a steady presence in the $1m+ market. Asian collectors continued to make their presence felt, representing 28.6% of those who placed bids on $1m+ art at Sotheby’s in the first six months of the year (the same as in 2022), according to data provided by the auction house. European bidders accounted for 30.3% (the same as in 2022) and North American bidders for 36.4% (down from 37.7% in 2022). There was marginally more bidding activity from the Middle-East and North Africa (a share of 2.7% compared with 1.6% in 2022) and South America (accounting for 0.7%, up from 0.4% in 2022).

For many of the top 50 most popular artists at auction, there is a strong correlation between the artist’s nationality and the geographic location of bidders, and this is particularly true for Asian artists. Seventy per cent of bidders for works by Yoshitomo Nara came from Asia, while for Yayoi Kusama and Kazuo Shiraga the figures are 61% and 52%, respectively. Among Chinese artists, the presence of Asian bidders was even more pronounced, with Zao Wou-Ki seeing 83% of bidding activity come from Asia, Chu Teh-Chun 90%, Wu Guanzhong 98%, and Zhang Daqian and Sanyu receiving 100% of bids from Asia. It is also interesting to note that the older generations of Chinese artists are still predominantly backed by Baby Boomer buyers.

Gen X bidders become the most important demographic in the $1m+ market for the first time. Gen X collectors (those born between 1965–80) accounted for the largest share (40.2%) of bidders in the $1m+ market in the first six months of 2023, up from 35.6% in 2022. For the first time since our analysis started in 2018, Gen X has overtaken the older Baby Boomer generation (those born between 1946 and 1964), which accounted for 39.5% of bidders in the first half of 2023, down from 40.6% in 2022. Meanwhile, Millennials (born between 1981–96) were less active, representing 13.5% of bidders in the first six months of this year, down from 16% in 2022. This could signal that younger collectors have been harder hit by the economic uncertainty compared with older generations.

Baby Boomers continue to drive bidding activity among the top 50 artists, but Gen X and Millennials are taking over. Between 2018 and the first half of 2023, Baby Boomers accounted for an average of 41% of the bidding activity among the top 50 artists, followed by Gen X (30%) and Millennials (23%). But the younger generation is becoming an increasingly important demographic, with its share of bidding activity growing from 6% in 2018 to 30% in the first half of 2023. Gen X and Millennials are also particularly active in emerging markets, such as the one for street artist Banksy (where they accounted for 84% of bidders), Contemporary sculptor KAWS (81%) and Young Contemporary painter Adrian Ghenie (75%).

Younger generations are making their presence felt at the highest end of the market, accounting for an average of 46% of bidders on works by the top five artists. In the Picasso market, for example, Gen X and Millennials made up 38% of bidders, and they were even more involved in the Basquiat market, where they accounted for 57% of potential buyers.

Private sales in the first half of 2023 are in line with results from last year: Sotheby’s private sales of $1m+ artworks brought in $525m in the first half of this year, on track to match the $1.05bn for the full year of 2022, with 99 artworks sold (compared with 168 during the whole of 2022). Based on Sotheby’s information about the most frequently sold artists in the private market (those with two or more artworks that sold above $1m per year between 2018 and the first half of 2023), a total of $347.2m was made in the first six months of 2023, compared with $358.9m for the whole of 2022. According to our analysis between 2019 and 2023, private sales at Sotheby’s peaked in 2020 and 2021 – the height of the Covid-19 pandemic – signalling that consignors tend to prefer private sales during times of economic uncertainty.

The best-selling artists in the private market are largely the same as at auction. Topping the list in terms of private sales value in the first half of 2023 were Pablo Picasso, Claude Monet, Andy Warhol, Jean-Michel Basquiat and Alberto Giacometti. These five artists accounted for 79.4% of sales in Sotheby’s $1m+ private market between 2019 and the first half of 2023. This is a significantly higher sales concentration compared to the full period from 2019 to the first half of 2023, when these artists accounted for 44.7% of private sales. Four of them – Picasso, Monet, Warhol and Basquiat – were also in the top five in terms of auction sales during the past 12 months (July 2022 to July 2023). However, other artists such as Francis Bacon (ranked 14th in terms of auction sales over the same period), have seen limited activity in the private market in the past six months, suggesting that consignors saw more potential in selling their artworks at auction than through private sales.

Although auction sales of $1m+ art provide a rich data set to analyse, it still leaves a gap in our understanding. By incorporating private sales data from Sotheby’s in this report, we aim to shed new light on an important part of the art market that is rarely revealed to the public. We believe this data fills in missing information and provides collectors with new intelligence and a more holistic view of overall trends in the market. Again, we understand that data from one auction house does not give us full insight into the private sales market, but we still believe that this information can aid our understanding of the dynamic between the public and private markets.

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